Can the endangered Rhino be saved?

On the surface, it would appear as though the United States Navy is continuing to give lukewarm support to the F-35.  By lukewarm, I mean do everything but leave the program outright.  Cutting orders, placing more emphasis on electronic attack and standoff weapons, and even outright stating that "stealth maybe overrated".

Not only that, but the USN needs to make up for F-35C development delays by extending the life of its legacy F/A-18C/D Hornets, much like Canada has done.   In the meantime, the slack has to be picked up by the newer Super Hornets.  The trouble is, these Rhinos have already been quite the workhorse thanks to increased operations (War on Terror, ISIS, etc, etc...).  This extra pressure on the Super Hornet fleet could lead to the need for their own life extension program being needed sooner than later, leading to a similar problem.

Simply put, in order for the USN to maintain its current level of fighter power into the foreseeable future, it need more fighter aircraft.  Now.

Nope.

Filling this gap with F-35Cs is a non-starter.  The JSF simply is not ready yet.  Nor will it be ready anytime this decade.  IOC is planned for 2019.  Block 3F capability (which includes the gun) should arrive at around the same time.  Full Block 4 capability (AIM-9X, SDBs, and Joint Strike Missile) will not be ready until the 2020s.  Keep in mind these timelines could easily be pushed even further into the future.

That really only leaves one option:  More Super Hornets.

Boeing has managed to keep the Super Hornet production line running at a snail's pace.  Keeping that line running makes sense both financially and strategically.  As long as that line exists, however, the juggernaut that is known as the JSF has a competitor for sales and a "back-up plan" if the decision was made to cancel or severely cut F-35 production.

The U.S. Department of Defense now has to make the same decision as Cortez during his Mexican expedition.  Do they burn the ships, never to look back?  Or do they keep the Super Hornet alive a bit longer?


Published: By: Unknown - 8:52 AM

USN cuts its F-35C order by a third!

In news that will surely have repercussions to the JSF program, the United States Navy has chosen to cut back their F-35C orders until 2020 by as much as a third. 

Instead, the USN will pursue more stand-off weapons (ie: ALCMs). 

The news can be seen here:  http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35cs-cut-back-us-navy-invests-standoff-weapons

"The Navy’s budget priorities reflect the views of Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert. In June 2012, shortly after he was appointed as CNO, Greenert published an article in the Naval Institute’s Proceedings magazine that downplayed the importance of advanced platforms, including stealth aircraft, in favor of “payloads” including standoff weapons."

In order for the F-35 to meet its production goals over the next few years, those USN sales will have to be made up some other way. Otherwise, its price will remain high, resulting in the "death spiral" or, at least, a "zombie shuffle". 

Published: By: Unknown - 3:24 PM

The USN and the rough road ahead.

Thanks for the link Canuck Fighter!

http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNAS_CarrierAirWing_white.pdf


For those who missed it, commenter Canuck Fighter posted a like to this excellent white paper regarding the United States Navy and the decision it will have to make regarding its carrier air wing.

For those of you not willing to delve into the report, here is the general gist of the USN's options.

Option 1:  Damn the torpedoes...  Full speed (slowly) ahead. 

The F-35 is already late, and may not see wide use from American super carriers until at least 2025, possibly even later. By then, the USN's current legacy Hornet fleet will be worn out and obsolete.  Without the JSF waiting in the wings, fighter capability will be severely reduced as the USN's current Super Hornet fleet will be tasked with pulling double-duty.

This does have the option of being the "easiest" route to follow, as well as reducing spending in the short term.  Unfortunately, much like Canada's current military procurement strategy, the USN will have to simply make do with what they have for the next few years.

Option 2:  Enhance networking capability. 

The EA-18G Growler is a definite source of pride for the USN, but it's capabilities need a shot in the arm to stay relevant in the evolving electronic battlefield. Ditto the E-2D Hawkeye.  With the F-35C still years away, now would be the prudent time to kick-start development of the next generation jammer (NGJ).  Under this plan, the USN could see a few more Growlers and Hawkeyes built.

This would greatly enhance the USN's electronic warfare capability, but it would likely be paid for by a reduction in the fighter fleet.  

Option 3:  Double down on the Super Hornet. 

Instead of waiting for F-35Cs, the USN could simply fill that gap with more Super Hornets. Boeing would very much like to keep the production line open, and it keeping two fighter manufacturers in business has strategic value.

The stumbling block here is there is only so much budget (and carrier room) for fighters. Additional Super Hornets (possibly Advanced Super Hornets) would likely be paid for by reducing F-35C orders, a scenario that could lead to the infamous "death spiral".

Option 4:  Send in the drones. 

While the F-35C has seen its share of issues, testing of the USN's UCLASS demonstrator, the X-47B, has gone off surprisingly well. Sooner or later, the USN will need to get its feet wet with UCAVs, the only questions are how soon and how much.

Which will it be?  Who knows...  A lot will ride on the upcoming F-35C carrier trials coming up in the next few weeks. 

Stay tuned. 

CNAS CarrierAirWing White by Doug Allen

Published: By: Unknown - 5:40 AM